College-Going in the Dallas Area: Implications for College/K-12 Collaboration

K​ey Findings

• This study defines college-going rate as the annual percentage of high school graduates in each graduating class who enroll in 2- and 4-year postsecondary institutions, including private colleges and universities, in the fall immediately following high school graduation.
• Overall immediate college-going rates for Texas in-state institutions are consistently lower than the overall national rates.¹
• The majority of ISDs and charter districts in the Dallas College service region serve students from disadvantaged, minority backgrounds; on average, charter districts send lower rates of their graduates to postsecondary institutions immediately following high school completion as opposed to traditional independent school districts.
• Except for a few outliers, school districts with lower accountability ratings and higher economic disadvantage have lower immediate college-going rates, while districts with higher accountability ratings and lower economic disadvantage have higher immediate college-going rates.

Executive Summary

Immediate college-going rates are of considerable interest in K-12 and higher education circles, but very little research beyond the calculations of national- and state-level rates by higher education coordinating boards have been conducted. The few studies that do examine the impact of college entry immediately following high school graduation assert that delayed entrance decreases the likelihood of attaining a degree. Through a holistic approach that stations the discussion on immediate college-going within the discourse on college readiness, this study aims to highlight and decipher the issues that bridge the high school-to-college transition in the Dallas College service region. The paper begins with a review of the academic literature on college readiness and immediate college-going in light of existing barriers to college entry for low-income students and students of color—obstacles that have been exacerbated by the pandemic in recent years. The paper then provides an overview of trends in immediate college-going rates at the national and state levels; it follows with an analysis of Dallas College area traditional independent and charter school districts and their immediate college entry rates to Dallas College and to other in-state institutions, as well as no-college-entry rates from 2010-2020 using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board; the paper ends with a closer look at immediate entry to Dallas College using the College’s internal data and offers suggestions for collaboration between leadership units of school districts, particularly those with low college-going rates, and Dallas College to prepare, attract, and retain potential postsecondary enrollees.

Significant determinants of graduates’ enrollment in postsecondary education immediately after high school completion are their level of preparation for college-level studies and their knowledge of the college-to-career pipeline. Evidence in the literature affirms college readiness consists of multiple key variables that influence students’ level of preparedness for college entry. Studies highlight that school counseling programs for postsecondary and career readiness customized for disadvantaged students, parental involvement in college planning, school climate and safety, academic rigor, and students’ academic and non-academic engagement determine the extent to which students are college ready and the likelihood of their seamless transition to college upon high school graduation.

Comparisons between overall national and Texas immediate college-going rates indicate Texas rates trailed national rates by an average of 15.1 percentage points from 2011-2020;² by factoring in an estimated 6% yearly out-of-state college-going rate for Texas based on the THECB’s reporting, the average difference between national and state rates over the ten-year period decreased to 9.1 percentage points. Estimated rates for no immediate entry to any postsecondary institution increased by approximately 9.3 percentage points from fall 2014 to fall 2020. Variations in national versus Texas immediate college-going rates for two-year institutions are less distinct than in the overall rates, and both national and state rates decreased by 1.9 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points, respectively, from 2019-2020. Furthermore, immediate college enrollment rates at Texas public two-year institutions experienced the most volatility from 2010-2020 in comparison to the state’s public four-year and private higher education sectors; college-going decreased by 8.9 percentage points over the 11-year period and by 5.7 percentage points from 2019 to 2020 among the state’s two-year colleges. Specifically, COVID-19 prompted a 22.3% decrease in the total number of graduates entering Texas public two-year colleges from fall 2019 to fall 2020, and the largest decline of 7.7 percentage points was among Hispanic students.

Excluding a few outliers, academic performance and the socioeconomic backgrounds of students appear to influence immediate college-going rates for school districts, and the starkest differences seem to be for charter districts. Differences in averages of entry rates to Dallas College and entry rates to other in-state public institutions between 23 ISDs and 14 charter districts indicate that charter districts consistently sent lower rates of their graduates to postsecondary institutions from 2016-2020. College-going in relation to academic accountability ratings of school districts suggests that accountability criteria such as performance on standardized tests, graduation rates, and other college and career readiness outcomes correlate with college-going rates. The majority of the ISDs had relatively higher ratings than the charter districts (primarily As and Bs) with in-state college-going rates concentrated in the 45%-65% range. More charter districts than ISDs held a rating of C, and their low in-state college-going rates, ranging from under 10% to 20%, reflect low outcomes for student achievement and school progress. A noticeable disparity in in-state college-going rates between economically disadvantaged ISDs and charter districts implies that ISDs, generally, are better preparing students for college entry and more effectively assisting students in overcoming barriers to a college education.

Dallas College differentiates the immediate enrollment of high school graduates for the fall semester after spring graduation by graduates of Dallas County ISDs and non-graduates of Dallas County ISDs. The latter group includes graduates of all charters, ISDs outside of Dallas County, private schools, and out-of-state schools. COVID-19 negatively impacted immediate college-going to Dallas College from ISDs in Dallas County (decrease of 4.4 percentage points from fall 2019 to fall 2021), but college-going to Dallas College from ISDs in other counties, and possibly charter districts, improved during this period (increase of 4.4 percentage points from fall 2019 to fall 2021). From fall 2019 to fall 2020, immediate college entry to Dallas College among all racial and ethnic groups, with the exception of Hispanic students, increased. From fall 2020 to fall 2021, immediate college entry increased for Hispanic students (by 5.7%) but decreased considerably for Black students (by 11.5%) and slightly for White students (by 0.7%); no change occurred in college-going among Asian students.

School districts with a substantial proportion of graduates refraining from postsecondary, especially low-performing, low-income charter districts in the area, can implement interventions from as early as middle school, develop innovative and more comprehensive advising processes, and partner with Dallas College to establish and expand dual-credit pathways and increase recruitment and enrollment efforts to propel more students into community college directly after high school completion.

Introduction

Jasmine is a recent graduate of an AAS program at Dallas College and a first-generation Latina college-goer. Over the last two years at the College, she also developed a career in software engineering at a Fortune 500 company through a career-training jumpstart partnership program between a national nonprofit and Dallas College. Jasmine’s parents have a primary school education and have established a life of limited means for their children in the United States. Coming from a high school classified as “economically disadvantaged” by the Texas Education Agency, how was Jasmine successful in her journey to prepare for and enter college, especially in the midst of the pandemic, which has led to unprecedented declines in immediate college entry among Latino and Black high school graduates in high-poverty schools (Hatch, 2022)?

The little research that has been conducted on the impact of college entry immediately following high school graduation asserts that delayed entrance decreases the likelihood of attaining a degree. Accordingly, this brief aims to draw attention to and decipher the elements that bridge the high school-to-college transition, and the objectives are two-fold. First, the brief examines overall immediate college-going rates at the national and state levels, as well as college-going rates in the Dallas College region using district-level data to determine variances in entry to Dallas College, entry to other in-state institutions, and no immediate college entry—all over a ten-year period from 2010 to 2020. Second, it seeks to identify the factors that support or undermine students’ seamless transition to college upon high school graduation, including consideration of the impact of COVID-19 on college-going. As referenced in the preluding brief on high school graduation trends in the Dallas College region, there has been a nationwide pandemic effect on college-going, as postsecondary enrollment among spring 2020 high school graduates declined for both fall 2020 and fall 2021 (NSC Research Center, 2021). As will be discussed in the following sections, other higher education and government entities have reported similar alarming trends, as state coordinating boards and higher education institutions are scrambling to determine why high school graduates are not attending college immediately and how to reverse this trend (Steele, 2022).

In Jasmine’s case, a recommendation from a teacher to partake in a college and career readiness mentorship program in middle and high school, her family’s expectations for her to pursue higher education, tuition assistance through the Dallas County Promise program, and her own motivation to learn and challenge herself academically propelled her to enroll in postsecondary directly after graduating high school, despite the difficulties of learning during the pandemic. These reasons among others discussed below are key determinants of whether or not graduates continue on to college without delay. By measuring and comparing college-going for Dallas-area independent school districts and charter districts, this analysis intends to show the spectrum of college-going rates in the area, ascertain why certain school districts have lower college-going rates than others, and suggest what school district leadership and postsecondary institutions, particularly Dallas College, can do to attract more graduates to the institution upon high school completion.

Review of the Literature

Defining College-Going

Minor variations in college-going rate definitions exist contingent upon the type of postsecondary entry data collected and differences in interpretations of these data by agencies and institutions (California Department of Education, 2022; NSC Research Center, 2021; THEC, 2022). Based on the data provided by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB) as well as the definition adopted by the National Center for Education Statistics, we define college-going rate as the annual percentage of high school graduates in each graduating class—grouped at the national, state, and school district levels—who enroll in 2- and 4-year postsecondary institutions, including private colleges and universities, in the fall immediately following high school graduation (NCES, 2022; THECB, 2022). Students who enroll in postsecondary education after this two- to three-month window are excluded from national and state immediate college-going counts (NCES, 2022b; THECB, 2022a). Fall high school graduates are not included in the analysis as they are not included in the immediate college-going THECB reports.

Impact of Immediate College Entry

Immediate college-going is an under-studied area; however, some studies on the impact of not attending college immediately after high school have determined that delayed entry is negatively associated with degree attainment after controlling for various academic and socioeconomic variables (Andrews, 2018; Bozick & DeLuca, 2005; Roksa & Velez, 2012). These studies uncovered that students who delay postsecondary enrollment are less likely to complete a bachelor’s degree and more likely than post-high-school-graduation enrollees to transition into adult roles, such as parents, spouses, or employees. Essentially no research examines the effects of college entry in the community college space. Since the scholarship suggests that time of entry to college makes a difference in student outcomes, this necessitates a closer look at the data on immediate college-going in the Dallas area, and particularly in school districts in the Dallas College service region.

College Readiness as an Indicator of College Entry

Significant determinants of graduates’ enrollment in postsecondary education immediately after high school completion are their level of preparation for college-level studies and their knowledge of the college-to-career pipeline; accordingly, academic discourse on college-going must exist in conjunction with that on college readiness. Evidence in the literature affirms college readiness consists of multiple key variables that influence students’ level of preparedness for college entry; studies have highlighted that school counseling programs for postsecondary and career readiness (particularly those beginning prior to high school), parental involvement in college planning, school climate and safety, academic rigor, and students’ academic and non-academic engagement determine the extent to which students are college ready (Belasco, 2013; Crumb & Larkin, 2018; Guevara-Cruz, 2018; Knaggs et al., 2021; Martinez, et al., 2020; Minor & Benner, 2017; Mitchall & Jaeger, 2018).

Using multilevel modeling to analyze data from the 2002 Educational Longitudinal Study, Belasco (2013) determined that visiting a counselor for college entrance information has a positive and statistically significant influence on students’ likelihood of postsecondary enrollment, and that counseling-related effects are greatest for students from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Moreover, academic ability and achievement—grade point averages, standardized test scores, coursework rigor—played a greater and more consistent role in determining the postsecondary enrollment and destinations of students as opposed to demographics. Certain school-level indicators were also related to the likelihood of postsecondary enrollment, such as the school’s mean socioeconomic status and the percentage of the school’s graduates attending four-year institutions. Attending a private high school also appeared to improve students’ likelihood of enrolling at a two-year or four-year institution. Crumb and Larkin (2018) contend that low-income and marginalized students, who are often first-generation potential college-goers, need greater empowerment and increased awareness of postsecondary processes of action, equity, and access to overcome limitations to opportunities created by economic disadvantage; they also need more guidance than their counterparts from school counselors, teachers, and non-familial adults and mentors to make fully informed decisions to attend college. By incorporating advocacy competencies from the American Counseling Association and Multicultural and Social Justice Counseling, the authors believe counselors in economically disadvantaged schools can practice social justice-oriented counseling to improve college-going culture at their campuses.

Furthermore, in Knaggs et al.’s (2021) study of senior students participating in a voluntary college preparatory program in an urban high school, the researchers found that students who were actively engaged in the program through participation in more challenging coursework and greater involvement in extracurriculars and community service demonstrated higher levels of college-going cultural capital than students who were less engaged. Mitchall and Jaeger (2018) contributed to the literature on the impact of parental involvement, levels of education, and income on students’ postsecondary enrollment by employing motivational theories to understand students’ perspectives on how parents, guardians, and families motivate first-generation, low-income students to attend college. Through a qualitative case study of seven first-generation, low-income students from mid-to-high poverty high schools who were nonparticipants in pre-college programs but immediately enrolled in a four-year institution, the researchers determined the strategies that underserved students and their families utilized to enable them to remain motivated about college. The area in which parents and guardians provided the most motivational support was autonomy by providing students with choice during college planning, respecting their chosen career path, providing information about basic admissions and financial aid processes, and encouraging their children’s help-seeking behavior. Students also cited early emphasis on education, competency support, positive reinforcement and feedback, and emotional support from their parents, guardians, and families as determinants of staying motivated to attend college. Parental and familial actions that undermined motivation, which the students in the case study eventually overcame, were lack of encouragement to attend college, little admissions process support, financial concerns, emphasis on family obligations, and gender normative expectations of not pursuing college.

Demographic Implications for College Readiness and College-Going

College preparedness and higher education attainment among Latino and Black students remain lower than among other demographic groups due to a multitude of socioeconomic barriers, including poverty, lack of access to high-quality schools and early-learning enrichment programs, status as English language learners, and lack of guidance, mentorship, and resources. Studies have suggested that creating a college-going environment, as well as an atmosphere where students feel safe, welcomed, and included in schools serving significant Latino and Black student populations can yield positive postsecondary enrollment outcomes. Guevara-Cruz (2018) emphasized that Latino students’ exposure to college and career readiness from as early as middle school, through the mentorship of college/career coaches, relevant curricula, academic and social enrichment activities and experiences, as well as the engagement of their families, can pave clear pathways for postsecondary opportunities. Another study suggested that leveraging different forms of community cultural wealth unique to the Latino community—aspirational, linguistic, social, navigational, familial, resistant, perseverant, and spiritual—through culturally responsive educational counseling and advising can facilitate a culture of postsecondary aspirations within Latino and Spanish-speaking communities (Martinez et al., 2020).

In conjunction with college-going culture, Minor and Benner (2018) examined psychological aspects that determine college attendance among Black students. Survey data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study of on students’ perceptions of psychologically based measures relating to school climate were linked to college attendance (both two-year and four-year) within two years of high school graduation through logistic regression and structural equation modeling. Results uncovered that the quality of student-teacher relationships, how much students liked school, academic expectations and standards of teachers and students, and feelings of school safety were correlated with enrollment in higher education. Relevant findings include that students who felt safe at their high schools were 47% more likely to attend a four-year college over a two-year college, students who attended a school with higher academic standards were 57% more likely to attend a four-year institution versus a two-year institution, and, most surprisingly, students who attended a school with higher academic expectations were 35% less likely to attend a two-institution as opposed to not attending college at all. This last finding relates to a four-year-college-for-all philosophy that has pervaded American high schools, placing greater importance on four-year college entry over not only entry into the workforce after graduation, but also over entry into two-year institutions (Rosenbaum, 2001). It is possible Black students (and most high school students in general) have internalized this ethos, and failure to meet the expectation of attending a four-year college may drive struggling high school students to disengage from postsecondary pursuits entirely.

College-Going at a Glance

Comparing High School Graduation and College-Going Rates

Comparisons between national high school graduation rates and those in Texas from 2011-2020 show nearly identical trends, increasing from approximately 86% to a little over 90% over the ten-year period. Greater variations exist between national and Texas college-going rates during that time. COVID-19 does not appear to have decreased high school graduation rates; in fact, Texas’s rate increased by 0.3% in 2020 (TEA, 2022), and the national rate increased by 0.6% according to a report by the Brookings Institute. In 2021, the national high school graduation rate returned to the 2019 level; thus, trends imply high school graduation has been relatively unaffected by the pandemic (Harris & Chen, 2022). Despite the pandemic’s disruption to secondary schooling, which led to shifts in instructional modes, most states reduced attendance, testing, and credit requirements in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, and teachers lowered expectations for student work (Education Week, 2020; Harris et al., 2020). Slight boosts and the overall stability of graduation rates are likely the result of changes in state policies and school standards.

One limitation of the state’s college-going rates is that they do not account for out-of-state college-goers. A recent examination using 2020 NCES data to compare the migration patterns of four-year college-bound students determined that Texas is a self-contained market. This implies that an above-average percentage of college-bound students stay in-state and an above-average percentage of first-year college students are from the state. Nationally, 80% of college-bound students in fall 2020 attended college in-state, and 5% to 6% attended an institution in an adjoining state; 90% of first-year students enrolled in Texas institutions were from in-state, and 1% to 2% were from an adjoining state (Wills & Sandoval-Williams, 2022). While the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board does not track out-of-state entrance to higher education institutions, the agency conducted a small-scale study to track high school graduates from 2011-2015 using student-level data from the National Student Clearinghouse. In doing so, the agency determined that nearly 6% of public high school graduates in Texas enrolled in college outside of the state in the fall immediately following graduation during this period (THECB, 2017).

Graduating cohorts after 2015 have not been tracked to out-of-state colleges, but if the assumption that the out-of-state college-going rate has remained at around 6% holds true, the gaps in national and state college-going rates are likely notably less than what the data appear to show at first glance (see Figure 1). National and Texas high school graduation rates remained quite similar and increased steadily over the ten-year period (Table 1), while national and Texas college-going rates did not improve; Texas rates remained below national rates every year. As it stands with data from only the THECB, differences between the national and state college-going rates range from 13.3 percentage points to almost 18 percentage points over the ten-year period, with the starkest difference of 17.8 percentage points occurring in 2020 during the onset of the pandemic. With the addition of a 6-percentage-point increase in Texas’s rates from 2011-2020, the variation in rates between the U.S. and Texas reduces to a range of 7.3 percentage points to almost 11.8 percentage points (11.8 percentage points occurring in 2020). While immediate college-going counts in Texas for 2021 have not been released, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, using data from the Current Population Survey (also used by NCES), reported that 61.8% of 2021 high school graduates nationwide were enrolled in colleges and universities in October 2021, a 0.9-percentage-point decrease from the 2020 rate of 62.7% reported by NCES (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022).

Table 1: National and Texas High School Graduation Rates at Timepoints from 2011-2020

Note: National and Texas high school graduation rates are over a 4-year period starting from 9th grade. National high school graduation rates from NCES (2020a); Texas high school graduation rates from TEA (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021).

Figure 1: National v. Texas High School College-Going Rates, 2011-2020

 

 

Note: Texas college-going rates include college entry to all in-state institutions only (public and private/independent), not out-of-state institutions. The striped segments at the top of the blue bars indicate estimated Texas college-going rates with the inclusion of out-of-state-going students (addition of 6 percentage points). National college-going rates from NCES (NCES, 2020b); Texas college-going rates from (THECB, 2022b).

National and Texas College-Going

Differences in national versus Texas college-going rates for two-year institutions are less marked than in the overall rates, as shown in Figure 2. For most years from 2002 to 2019, Texas surpassed the nation in two-year college-going. The five-year period from 2008 to 2012 showed peaks in two-year college-going in both the state and the nation; however, rates gradually declined post-2011/2012 and fell to their lowest in 2020. Nevertheless, community colleges experienced decreases in immediate college-going at a slower rate than college-going at two- and four-year institutions combined from 2019-2020. The national overall immediate college-going rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points, and Texas’s overall immediate college-going rate for in-state institutions decreased by 6.3 percentage points. National and state rates of immediate college-going at two-year colleges only decreased by 1.9 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points, respectively. In comparison to national rates, Texas has experienced greater drops in college-going among high school graduates in the last few years.

Figure 2: National v. Texas College-Going Rates Overall and for 2-Year Institutions, 2002-2020

 

 

Note: Texas overall college-going rates include college entry to all in-state institutions only (public and private/independent), not out-of-state institutions. Texas college-going rates from (THECB, 2022b); National college-going rates from NCES (2020b; 2020c).

Texas Classifications of College-Going

The higher education sectors into which immediate college-going public high school graduates in Texas enrolled are shown in Figure 3. Among all sectors, immediate enrollment rates at private institutions remained the most constant over time, while enrollment at public four-year institutions was the second-most constant over time with the greatest decrease of 0.9 percentage points from 2019 to 2020. Immediate enrollment rates at public two-year institutions experienced the most shifts from 2010-2020; college-going decreased by 8.9 percentage points over the 11-year period, and by 5.7 percentage points from 2019 to 2020, as noted in Figure 2.

Figure 3: College-Going Rates in Texas by Sector, 2010-2020

 

 

Note: “Not Found” is the sum of students who did not enter postsecondary in-state AND entered out-of-state institutions. “Not Trackable” graduates have non-standard ID numbers that will not find a match at Texas higher education institutions; these students are excluded. Research Institute calculations of 2010-2020 college-going rates by sector; data from THECB (2022b).

Trends in out-of-state college-going are more challenging to decipher since THECB does not track these students and classifies them in the same category as those who did not enter higher education immediately after high school graduation; these two groups fall in the “Not Found” sector. Yet, it is possible to roughly estimate the percentage of individuals who attended college out-of-state from those not found in THECB’s higher education records using the agency’s findings on out-of-state college enrollment patterns from 2011-2015. Table 2 shows that nearly 6% of public high school graduates entered college outside the state through 2015;³ given the absence of better approximations, assuming that this ratio remained the same from 2016 to 2019 and that out-of-state-entry in 2020 decreased to less than 6% due to COVID-19, we can hypothesize that the overwhelming majority in the” Not Found” sector are those who did not enter postsecondary education after graduation. In fall 2015, 90% of Texas public high school graduates who enrolled in college remained in the state; of those who left Texas, almost half (45%) graduated from high schools in Harris County (Houston area) or in Collin, Dallas, and Tarrant counties (Dallas-Fort Worth area); only one in ten of out-of-state college-goers enrolled in two-year institutions; Hispanic students were less likely than Black and White students to enroll out-of-state. Also, students leaving the state from 2011-2015 most frequently attended colleges in Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and California (THECB, 2017b).

Table 2: Out-of-State College-Going Rates from Texas Public High Schools, 2011-2015

Note: 2011-2015 out-of-state college-going rates from THECB (2017a). High school graduates not found in THECB reports were tracked out of state using data from the National Student Clearinghouse. Students were reclassified from the “Not Found” category if they enrolled at a 2-year or 4-year institution for at least 12 days in the first fall semester after their spring high school graduation. Rate is based on total number of high school graduates who enrolled in college divided by the total number of high school graduates minus the not trackable.

If approximately 6% of public high school graduates attended out-of-state institutions the fall of each year from 2016 to 2020, then the estimated rates of students who did not go to college directly after high school are as depicted in Table 3. Over time, slightly higher percentages of high school graduates have refrained from directly transitioning to postsecondary education, with the pandemic escalating this decline. Possible correlations could exist between the state’s demographic shifts (increasing Hispanic population) and changes in college-going trends (lower proportion of Hispanic students enroll in college as opposed to other race/ethnicity groups), and rising tuition costs could signal decreases in college entry (Brown, 2022; Hatch, 2022; Jaschik, 2022).

Table 3: Rates of No Entry to College from Texas Public High Schools, 2014-2020

Note: No entry rate calculation: % “Not Found” – 6%. Data from (THECB, 2017a, 2022b).
*Pandemic effects likely decreased out-of-state immediate college-going rate to below 6%.

Texas Two-Year College-Going by Race and Ethnicity

A previous Research Institute brief on high school graduation trends noted that the Hispanic population has increased most rapidly among all race/ethnicity groups in Texas, and an increasing Hispanic population has coincided with an increasing number of high school graduates in this demographic (Research Institute at Dallas College, 2022). In recent years, Texas community colleges have served more Hispanic public high school graduates than graduates from any other demographic group, as shown in Figure 4. However, this trend may change in the current decade, as COVID-19 has prompted the largest decrease in immediate college-going at Texas two-year institutions among Hispanic students—by 7.7 percentage points from 2019 to 2020. Drops in college-going rates at community colleges from 2019 to 2020 for Asian, Black, Native American/Multi-Racial, and White students were 4.7, 4.5, 4.1, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively. In 2020, White high school graduates had a slightly higher representation in the state’s two-year institutions than did Hispanic graduates (19.5% versus 19.1%), and Asian graduates had the least representation at 15.4%. Furthermore, a 22.3% decrease in the total number of graduates entering public two-year colleges occurred from 2019 to 2020.

Figure 4: College-Going Rates for Texas Public 2-Year Institutions by Race and Ethnicity, 2018-2020

 

 

Note: 2018-2020 college-going rates by race and ethnicity from (THECB, 2022b).

Pandemic effects are evident in national and state immediate transition-to-college rates, and community colleges have lost the most traction with new college-bound high school graduates. National data from 2021 on immediate college-going from IPEDS indicate a 6% decline in enrollment to four-year institutions and a 16% decline to two-year colleges (Harris & Chen, 2022). Given the relatively few interruptions to high school graduation rates, college-going declines are not a consequence of a smaller pool of college-goers, but a corollary of the instability, uncertainty, inconvenience, and lack of preparation for learning in the postsecondary space after COVID-19. Financial hardships, concerns with accumulating student debt, college readiness, and mental health challenges have made the transition to college a less attractive choice for many students; the perception that the costs of attending college outweigh the benefits has permeated in the psyches of young adults, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds (Hatch, 2022). A survey conducted with 22,000 high school graduates from the Class of 2022 found that Latino, Black, and men graduates’ plans to attend postsecondary declined by the most percentage points from a similar survey in 2019—by 8% among Latino students and 7% among Black students and men (Jaschik, 2022). The ramifications of decreases in college-going will be uncovered in the years to come, but one presumption is that the declines could indicate a drop in future attainment of postsecondary credentials.

College-Going Rates in Dallas College Region School Districts

School-Type Effects on College Entry: A Note on Charters

Students from traditional public high schools are the primary focus of college-going and college readiness in the literature; limited research on the link between charter high schools and college preparation impedes conclusions on the efficacy of charter systems in creating a college-going culture and placing high school graduates into postsecondary pathways. Intended to be more innovative than their traditional counterparts, charter schools are tuition-free public schools funded by the state and serve all kinds of students, including students from underserved communities whom traditional public schools have failed; many charters aim to be successful alternatives for students who are not accommodated well by the traditional public school model. Charters are underfunded in comparison to public schools in ISDs because they do not receive local tax dollars and are bound to stringent accountability standards in exchange for flexibility and sovereignty (Texas Public Charter School Association, 2020). Charters are distinct from magnets, which are schools within ISDs that specialize in specific academic and professional pathways (Moody, 2019). Variations in the quality and objectives of charter school systems across cities and locales could further contribute to the challenges of ascertaining how well charters prepare students for college.

Research does indicate, however, that most charter schools operate within low-income, segregated urban neighborhoods and underserved rural communities in the United States; they often adopt punitive, “no excuses” disciplinary and socialization practices and pedagogies that are regarded as investments in creating “good, disciplined, aspirational” citizens (Stahl, 2020). Stahl conducted qualitative discourse analysis of print and media teacher-training texts used by charter schools to argue that these institutions implement corporeal instructional approaches where students’ bodily and behavioral control is a requisite for academic success. One recent investigation examined the experiences of 14 Latino students in their preparation for college at a well-regarded Texas college preparatory charter school system. Martinez, Vega, and Marquez (2019) conducted a qualitative phenomenological study and concluded that, while high schools in the charter district provided rigorous academic preparation for college through advanced and dual-credit courses, information gaps existed in terms of financial ability to attend college, predominantly for undocumented students, and more individualized guidance and support for the students and their parents regarding the college admissions and preparation process were needed.

Charter vs. ISD College-Going

The Research Institute calculated immediate college-going rates for public high school graduates from 37 public school districts—23 independent school districts and 14 charter districts—served by Dallas College. Rates for those who entered Dallas College, entered other in-Texas institutions, and for those "Not Found" in Texas higher education institutions were determined from data on aggregate counts of students in each category from THECB reports for years 2010-2020 (THECB, 2022a). School districts were selected based on the following criteria: they are located in Dallas County or in counties bordering Dallas County that send more than 1% of their graduating seniors to the College, and they are districts that have dual-credit and/or early college high school agreements and memorandums with Dallas College.⁴ One of the 37 ISDs is rural as classified by TEA, and all the charter districts are urban and in Dallas County (TEA, 2022b). Appendices A and B provide a list of all the school districts and their college-going rates for years 2019 and 2020. Figures 5 depicts the average immediate entry rate of all charter districts and all independent school districts for each year from 2016-2020. Differences in averages of entry rates to Dallas College and entry rates to other in-state public institutions between ISDs and charter districts indicate that charter districts have consistently sent lower rates of their graduates to postsecondary institutions over the last decade. Potential reasons for this difference may be due to factors underscored in the literature review, including the lack of academic rigor and student preparation for college and the socioeconomic contexts of the students and school locales that charter districts serve. Figure 5 illustrates that while immediate college-entry rates to Dallas College increased for ISDs after 2016, the reverse has occurred for charter districts.

Figure 5: Immediate Entry to Dallas College and Other Institutions by School District Sector, 2016-2020

 

 

Note: Research Institute calculations of college-going rates; Dallas College rates based on the total number of students entering Dallas College divided by the total number of students graduating from the school district. Other Institution rates based on the total number of students entering other in-state (in-Texas) colleges and universities (public, private, independent 2-year and 4-year institutions) divided by the total number of students graduating from the school district. College-going counts from (THECB, 2022a). Figure depicts average rates from all ISD and charter districts for each year.

Interestingly, Figure 5 depicts opposing trends between ISDs and charter districts in immediate college entry to all other in-state institutions; entry rates to other colleges gradually decreased for ISDs after 2016 but increased for charter districts. An increase in college-going rates for Dallas County charter districts in this category signifies that students enrolling in colleges other than Dallas College are perhaps entering four-year institutions instead of other two-year institutions.⁵ Further research is needed to explain why 2017-2019 was a turning point for college-going trends, but one probable reason for the jump in four-year college-going among charters may have been the 2015 launch of 60x30TX, THECB’s initial campaign to increase higher education attainment in the state. The campaign could have propelled higher-performing charter districts to increase college readiness initiatives and boost graduates’ enrollment in baccalaureate degree programs.

A reduction of 4.7 percentage points in the average Dallas College entry rate for ISDs during the first year of the pandemic is expected; an increase of 1.7 percentage points in the average charter district entry rate to the College in 2020 is unexpected. However, both 2020 ISD and charter average entry rates for other in-state institutions declined by 3.3 percentage points and 7.8 percentage points, respectively (Figure 5). Two inferences can be construed from these trends. First, if the hypothesis regarding Texas high school graduates attending college out-of-state holds true, immediate enrollment in four-year colleges among charter high school graduates decreased significantly during the beginning of the pandemic. Second, charter graduates who would have enrolled in four-year colleges in 2020 may have instead opted to take the financially safer path to community college, specifically to Dallas College, amidst the uncertainties of the current environment; this change could potentially account for the 1.7-percentage-point increase in entry to Dallas College in fall of 2020.

Accountability and College-Going

Examining yearly average college-going rates can be misleading, as these rates are, to an extent, biased toward higher-performing school districts. This is especially true for the charter districts since greater variation in performance ratings exist among this district type as opposed to the ISDs. Assessing college-going in relation to academic accountability ratings of school districts allows one to determine if patterns between the two variables exist. The literature affirms college readiness as a determinant of college-going, and students’ college readiness is largely dictated by test performance, high school graduation status, and other academic outcomes. The Texas Education Agency evaluates its ISDs and charter districts on academic performance through an accountability system based on state standardized test scores, graduation rates, and college/career/military readiness outcomes. Using these criteria, the agency rates districts and campuses through a letter grading scale of A, B, C, D, or F (TEA, 2022a). Figure 6 depicts the relationship between the most recent (2019) accountability ratings and the comprehensive in-state college-going rates for the same year of the 37 school districts of focus. The TEA declared a state of disaster in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 and did not rate school districts during those academic years.

Figure 6: Academic Accountability v. In-State College-Going by School District Type, 2018-2019

 

 

Note: In-state college-going rate is the sum of the Dallas College and other in-state institution entry rates. School district accountability ratings from TEA (2020a); school districts were not evaluated for academic year 2019-2020. Research Institute calculations of college-going rates.

None of the districts examined are graded below a C, and charter districts (red dots) had greater variation in ratings and college-going rates than ISDs (blue dots). The majority of the ISDs had relatively higher ratings than the charter districts (primarily As and Bs) with in-state college-going rates concentrated in the 45%-65% range. Even the two ISDs with a C rating had in-state college-going rates between 45% and almost 60%. One affluent ISD—Highland Park—holds an A rating but had a below-average in-state college-going rate (under 40%), which is likely due to its higher out-of-state college-going rate. More charter districts than ISDs held a grade of C, and their low in-state college-going rates, ranging from under 10% to 20%, reflect low outcomes for student achievement and school progress. Only one charter district with a C rating had a closer-to-average in-state college-going rate of approximately 45%. Also noteworthy, another charter district—Richland Collegiate High School—had the highest in-state college-going rate among ISDs and charter districts combined of approximately 85% as well as an A rating. Housed at the Dallas College Richland Campus, this district is unique in its design to allow students to earn a high school diploma, college credit, and associate degree simultaneously, beginning in their 11th grade year (Dallas College, 2022). Expectedly, students completing a robust college curriculum at a college campus are prepared and likely to continue higher education and pursue more advanced degrees (Giani et al., 2014; Zeiser et al., 2021).

Overall, the data show that academic performance and college-going have a positive association—higher performance indicates higher college-going rates. Yet, exceptions exist, particularly the few districts with below-average ratings but average college-going rates; this signals that, despite low standardized test scores and college readiness metrics, these lower performing districts are still supporting graduates with resources and guidance to help them enter postsecondary. However, these students are likely less college-ready than their peers from higher-performing districts and may require additional academic support at the college level. College Coaches and the Admissions Office at Dallas College can identify and flag incoming students from these districts in the institution’s internal records to notify Success Coaches of their need for more assistance.

Deciphering Out-of-State-Goers

The challenges of measuring public high school graduates’ migration to out-of-state colleges have been detailed in the earlier sections of the brief. Nevertheless, examining school districts with high percentages of graduates in the "Not Found” category along with the districts’ accountability ratings may provide some clarity on which districts are more likely than others to send their graduates to higher education institutions outside of Texas. The assumption to support this claim is that districts with low ratings are likely sending a small proportion of their graduates to in-state colleges and, thus, an even smaller fraction or, perhaps, no graduates to out-of-state colleges. Locational (urban, rural, suburban) and socioeconomic (affluent v. disadvantaged) factors, which may intercorrelate, can also affect out-of-state college-going (Engberg & Wolniak, 2010; Hirschl & Smith, 2020). While the socioeconomic aspect with regard to in-state college-going is touched upon below, analysis of these effects on out-of-state college-going are beyond the scope of this brief; such an inquiry may be the focus of a subsequent brief using UT Dallas Education Research Center and National Student Clearinghouse student-level data as part of the Research Institute’s eight-year longitudinal study tracking Dallas area ISD students from high school through postsecondary and into the workforce.

Figure 7 highlights the accountability ratings of ISDs (blue) and charter school districts (red) that had more than 50% of their graduates classified as "Not Found” in the Coordinating Board’s data report for 2020. All districts with C ratings are either urban or rural (not suburban) and/or geographically positioned in low-income areas within the greater Dallas region; over 70% of C-rated districts with 50% or more graduates not found in Texas higher education institutions are charters with “Not Found” rates ranging from approximately 60% to over 85%. One probable conclusion may be that few to no graduates of these school districts attended college outside of Texas in fall of 2020, and the majority, perhaps, entered the workforce or pursued other adult roles with their high school diplomas in 2020; without data from the school districts to validate these inferences, the suggestions are theoretical at best. It is slightly more difficult to establish the direction of students from B-rated districts—if they attended college out-of-state or did not go to college at all. Given the hypothesized 6% out-of-state college-going average for Texas in 2020, one can infer again that the majority of those graduates not found in these districts did not enter postsecondary. Of the districts with an A rating, two highly affluent ISDs (Highland Park and Northwest) likely had a significant proportion of their graduates not found in Texas colleges enter out-of-state colleges. Given the low percentages of in-state college-going for the A-rated charter districts, their ‘"Not Found” graduates probably did not leave Texas to attend college either (see Appendix B). While these charter districts offer various college preparation and support programs to their students including dual-credit courses, SAT/ACT prep classes, and college counseling, they do not offer an AP or IB curriculum, which is a primary indicator of whether or not a secondary institution, particularly a public school, prepares its students for more selective colleges, many of which are out-of-state (Clinedinst & Patel, 2018; Duta et al., 2018; Matthews, 2006). In most cases and with the exception of the affluent ISDs, school districts with 50% or more of their graduates not tracked to a Texas higher education institution presumably did not send their high school completers to postsecondary.

Figure 7: Differentiating Not College-Going v. Out-of-State-Going from School Districts with Over 50% of Graduates Not Found in a Texas Higher Education Institution, 2020

 

 

Note: Research Institute calculations of 2020 “Not Found” rates; “Not Found” counts from (THECB, 2022a). 2019 school district accountability ratings from TEA (2020a). Only districts with “Not Found” rates of more than 50% included. Graduates classified as “Not Found” were not located at a Texas higher education institution in fall 2020.

College-Going in Disadvantaged School Districts

Figure 8 illustrates economically disadvantaged school districts relative to their in-state college-going rates for year 2020. Districts with 50% or more of their student population classified as economically disadvantaged by various indicators including free or reduced-price meals and TANF eligibility are depicted; immediate college-going rates for Dallas College and other in-state institutions are summed (TEA, 2019, 2020b; THECB, 2022a). The disparity in in-state college-going rates between economically disadvantaged ISDs and charter districts is conspicuous and implies that ISDs, by and large, are better preparing students for college entry and more effectively assisting students in overcoming barriers to a college education. Noteworthy are the two charter districts serving an economically disadvantaged majority (Life School and Uplift Education) that had in-Texas college-going rates above 60% (over 14% to Dallas College and over 30% to other institutions; see Appendix B). In comparison, the five disadvantaged charter districts with the lowest in-state college-going rates had lower rates for Dallas College (2% to 8%) than other institutions (2% to 19%). Assuming that 64% to 85% of graduates from these charters did not pursue postsecondary directly after high school, initiatives can be considered to propel more of these individuals into college, especially community college.

Figure 8: Economically Disadvantaged School Districts and In-State College-Going, 2020

 

 

Note: Only school districts with 50% or more of the total student population either eligible for free or reduced-price meals or classified disadvantaged by other indicators included (TEA, 2019, 2020b). Percent disadvantaged calculation: 100% minus % not economically disadvantaged. In-state college-going rate is the sum of the Dallas College and other in-state institution entry rates (Research Institute calculations).

Excluding a few outliers, academic performance and the socioeconomic backgrounds of students appear to influence immediate college-going rates for school districts, and the starkest differences seem to be for charter districts. Charter schools have proliferated in Texas and across the nation and often promise increased postsecondary preparation and access (Prothero, 2016). However, data on accountability ratings and college-going rates of traditional school districts and charter districts in the Dallas area suggest conflicting outcomes for college readiness and access among charter districts. While efforts to increase immediate college-going rates across all district types are necessary in the region, the necessity is greater for the charter districts in Dallas County that, combined, produce approximately half of the number of graduates as DISD (see Appendices A and B).

A Closer Look at College-Going at Dallas College

Charter districts sending graduates to Dallas College are not specifically identified in the College’s data inventory; Dallas College differentiates the immediate enrollment of high school graduates for the fall semester after spring graduation by graduates of Dallas County ISDs and non-graduates of Dallas County ISDs. The latter group includes graduates of all charters, ISDs outside of Dallas County, private schools, and out-of-state schools. Analyses of college-going and educational access would benefit from more distinctive classification methods for various school district sectors within the College’s data collection and data organization structures. Though trends signify that the majority of incoming high school graduates to the College came from traditional public-school districts within Dallas County, the proportion of students from Dallas County ISDs entering Dallas College decreased by 4.4 percentage points from fall 2019 to fall 2021, while the proportion of students from all other school districts and school sectors, including charter districts, increased by 4.4 percentage points from pre-pandemic through the pandemic (Figure 9). COVID-19 negatively impacted immediate college-going to Dallas College from ISDs in Dallas County, but college-going to Dallas College from ISDs in other counties, and possibly charter districts, improved during this period. Perhaps Dallas College’s online course offerings during the pandemic increased accessibility for this student population. More granular identification methods for the charter school sector (e.g., by individual schools and campuses) would allow for further analysis on immediate entry from the Dallas County charter districts of focus in this brief.

Figure 9: Proportions of Immediate Entry to Dallas College from Dallas County ISDs v. All Other High Schools, 2019-2021

 

 

Note: “Other High Schools” includes high schools in all Texas Charter school districts, all private schools, and all out-of-state schools. Research Institute calculations; proportions based on the total number of high school graduates entering from either Dallas County ISDs or non-Dallas County ISDs in the fall following spring graduation divided by the total number of high school graduates entering Dallas College in the fall following spring graduation multiplied by 100 (Dallas College, n.d.).

A depiction of entry rates from ISDs in Dallas County in Figure 10 shows that the average percent of the immediate college-goers from Dallas ISD was over 27% from 2019-2021, while the remaining 73% came from other Dallas County independent school districts. Dallas College entry from DISD significantly declined in the first year of the pandemic (fall 2020) from the previous year (by 10.5 percentage points), but entry among DISD high school graduates improved in fall 2021 (by 4.9 percentage points); still, a deficit of 5.6 percentage points remains in comparison to the proportion for fall 2019 immediate entry. An inverse trend occurred in the immediate entry of graduates from all other Dallas County ISDs, as the proportion increased in fall 2020 and declined in fall 2021.

Figure 10: Proportions of Immediate Entry to Dallas College from Dallas County ISDs, 2019-2021

 

 

Note: Excludes charter districts and private schools. Research Institute calculations; proportions based on the total number of high school graduates entering from either DISD or other Dallas County ISDs in the fall following spring graduation divided by the aggregate number of high school graduates from all Dallas County ISDs entering Dallas College in the fall following spring graduation multiplied by 100 (Dallas College, n.d.).

Figure 11 depicts that despite reductions in overall immediate college-entry during COVD-19—a 22.4% decline from fall 2019 to fall 2020 and an 11.4% decline from fall 2020 to fall 2021⁶—primary decreases in proportions of entry to Dallas College by racial and ethnic groups occurred for Hispanic and Black high school graduates. The proportion of Hispanic college-goers decreased by 3.5 percentage points from 2019 to 2020, while the proportion of Black college-goers decreased by 2.4 percentage points from 2020-2021. Slightly more Black high school graduates entered Dallas College in fall 2020 as opposed to the previous year (by 0.8 percentage points), and entry among Hispanic graduates improved in fall 2021 from the previous year (by 3.2 percentage points).

Figure 11: Proportions of High School Graduates Entering Dallas College by Race/Ethnicity, 2019-2021

 

 

Note: Research Institute calculations; proportions based on the total number of high school graduates entering within a racial or ethnic group in the fall following spring graduation divided by the total number of high school graduates entering Dallas College in fall following spring graduation multiplied by 100 (Dallas College, n.d.).

More specific percent changes in the immediate entry rates illustrated in Figure 12 indicate that from fall 2019 to fall 2020, college-going among all racial and ethnic groups, with the exception of Hispanic students, increased; college-going among Asian students exhibited the greatest gain with a 27.3% increase from 2019 to 2020. From fall 2020 to fall 2021, immediate college-going increased for Hispanic students (by 5.7%) but decreased considerably for Black students (by 11.5%) and slightly for White students (by 0.7%); no change occurred in college-going among Asian students. For those college-goers whose race and ethnicity was unknown or not reported, rates increased by more than 6% over the two periods. With Hispanic and Black students representing the largest proportions of the composite student population at Dallas College, fluctuations in entry rates for these subgroups have likely had substantial impact on the total counts of students entering Dallas College directly after high school graduation.

Figure 12: Percent Change in Rates of High School Graduates Entering Dallas College by Race/Ethnicity, 2019-2021

 

 

Note: Research Institute calculations; percent change calculation: (new rate - old rate)/old rate * 100. Dallas College internal data (Dallas College, n.d.).

Looking Ahead

The direct transition to college following one’s high school career is, for many students and particularly from the public school system, a luxury. Familial, cultural, economic, and environmental circumstances often prescribe life courses and outcomes; however, educational attainment can be the differentiator between a life of adversity and one of ease (Lleras-Muney et al., 2020; Mitri, 2021; Montez & Hayward, 2014). Research affirms that delayed entry into higher education decreases the likelihood of attaining a postsecondary credential, and for those from more limited means, attending college is generally less accessible. In recent years, existing barriers to a college education have been exacerbated by the pandemic with unprecedented gaps in immediate college-going between students from high- and low-poverty schools and for students of color (Research Institute at Dallas College, 2022). The majority of ISDs and charter districts in the Dallas College area serve students from disadvantaged, minority backgrounds. Ensuring these students withstand the uncertainties of the current market economy, realize their educational potential, and achieve the best returns and outcomes is more salient than ever before.

Joint efforts between leadership units of school districts with overall low college-going rates and Dallas College to prepare, attract, and retain potential postsecondary enrollees can significantly diminish what would otherwise be lasting inequities. As discussed in the literature review, encouragement of college attainment beginning in the primary grades, a pre-high school start to college readiness and preparation, robust mentorship and advising throughout the preparatory period, rigorous academic curricula, and parental support and involvement can propel those high school completers with worse odds into community college. Area school districts, including low-performing, low-income charters graduating a sizable percent of students who do not pursue postsecondary, can implement early interventions and programming from middle school onwards, such as AVID, Communities in Schools, TRIO-Upward Bound, and GEAR UP, among others, to motivate students to develop a college-focused mindset and acquire the cultural capital to prepare and gain confidence for college entry. Districts can also develop innovative and more comprehensive advising processes wherein counselors learn and utilize approaches based on social justice principles to provide more tailored mentorship on college admissions, college-relevant financial literacy, and academic success to their students. Dallas College can partner with school districts, specifically those that do not offer college-level curricula, to establish and expand dual-credit offerings and early college high school programs. Targeting and boosting recruitment and enrollment efforts from these districts, as well as promoting the College’s scholarship and tuition assistance programs such as Dallas County Promise and Rising Star, could attract more high school graduates to the institution. State-funded scholarship and tuition assistance programs, such as Promise, that aim to increase postsecondary enrollment and attainment can draw more disadvantaged high school completers into the college-to-workforce pipeline (Munoz et al., 2016).⁷

Future studies in this area could expound the effects of dual-credit participation on immediate college-going, accounting for various demographic and background variables relevant to community college students and, more specifically. to Dallas College students. In particular, the Research Institute can examine Dallas area school districts’ immediate college-going rates for dual-credit participants to determine if these students are transitioning to Dallas College or to other institutions (two- and four-year) after graduation and if factors such as the intensity of participation (number of dual-credit courses completed), the type of courses, and the time in which they are taken impact migration patterns to higher education institutions. The College’s internal data as well as student-level data holdings through the Education Research Center at UT Dallas can be used to address such next-step research questions. Forthcoming qualitative studies can explore variations in the experiences and outcomes of first-time-in-college Dallas College students who participated in dual-credit and those who did not.

Despite coming from a C-rated, low-income school district, Jasmine intensely participated in her high school’s dual-credit and Advanced Placement offerings, completing as many as five college-level courses per year beginning her freshman year; she also immersed herself in extracurricular activities and volunteer work. While she credits the mentorship, experiential opportunities, and resources through the AVID program as influencing factors for her determination and preparation to enter Dallas College, as well as the Promise program for enabling her to afford it, Jasmine believes the most salient motivator for her higher education aspirations was the holistic support from the social institutions that surrounded her from beginnings of her schooling journey—her family, church, community, peers, and teachers.

¹ Gaps between Texas and national rates reduce when the estimated out-of-state college-going rate is incorporated into Texas’ overall rate.

² Texas college-going rates include college entry to all in-state institutions only (public and private/independent), not out-of-state institutions.

³ The Research Institute adopts a more liberal estimate of 6% as opposed to 5% for the estimated out-of-state college-going rate since rates for 2011-2015 (Table 2) trend upwards of 5%.

⁴ None of the charter districts, with the exception of Richland Collegiate High School of Math and Science housed at Dallas College Richland Campus, have dual-credit and/or Early College High School agreements and memorandums with Dallas College.

⁵ Immediate college-going rates from higher performing districts inflate average rates and outweigh districts with lower college-going rates.

⁶ Percent decrease calculation: (original n – new n)/original n *100. n = sample size.

⁷ Programs that solely focus on increasing enrollment in only one postsecondary sector could yield unintended diversion effects on enrollment in other high education sectors. As an example, the Missouri A+ Schools Program, which provided eligible high school graduates scholarships to public two-year colleges, increased two-year college-going rates by 5.3%, but decreased 4-year college-going rates by 3.8% (Munoz et al., 2016).