Transfer Pathways and Economic Mobility: Evidence from Dallas College and North Texas

McKenna Griffin, Dillon Lu, Navi Dhaliwal, and Lanita Etea

Insight Brief - Published December 22, 2025

Introduction

Many community college students, including those at Dallas College, enroll with the aspiration of earning a bachelor’s degree. In most cases, this means that the student hopes to earn credits at the community college, transfer to a four-year university, and ultimately earn their degree. Transfer pathways can appeal to students for several reasons. Community colleges offer a more affordable entry point to higher education, with more accessible admissions requirements, and often more convenient locations and flexible course offerings. Yet the evidence on whether transfer generates long-term economic value for students is mixed (Belfield, 2013; Andrews et al., 2014; Kopko & Crosta, 2016; Baker, 2016; Velasco et al., 2024; Miller, 2025). Students can realize positive economic returns from vertical transfer, but frictions in the transfer process, the risk of not graduating after transfer, and disparities in outcomes by student characteristics mean that transfer alone is far from a guarantee of economic mobility.

In this analysis, we examine whether transfer pays off – and what factors are associated with post-transfer success – in the context of Dallas College. Using administrative data from the Texas Education Research Center, we trace the outcomes of more than 200,000 first-time-in-college (FTIC) students who initially enrolled at Dallas College between 2010 and 2022. We report both descriptive statistics and regression estimates of the factors associated with transfer rates, bachelor’s completion rates, and earnings – including whether students achieve an economic mobility threshold (defined as earnings at or above the 60th percentile in Texas). Overall, we find that – despite variation across student characteristics and major – the economic gains from transfer are strongly connected to bachelor’s completion (Figure 1). This result should inform Dallas College’s ongoing effort to simplify and streamline transfer pathways, exemplified by the Dallas County Promise Transfer Success Fund and Dallas Transfer Collaborative initiatives, so that more students are able to not only transfer from Dallas College to their next destinations, but do so with a clear academic plan and the supports needed to graduate in a timely manner.

Figure 1

Transfer Trends Over Time

At Dallas College, transfer rates have risen over the past decade, whether measured within two, four, or six years of an FTIC student’s first term of enrollment. Within four years of enrolling at Dallas College, just 14% of students from the 2010 FTIC cohort transferred vertically (to a public university, independent college or university, or health-related institution), compared to 23% for the 2020 FTIC cohort (Figure 2). We see similar patterns in six-year transfer rates, with an additional 3-5% of students transferring within six years of their FTIC term. In 2019, we also see a jump in two-year transfer rates, from a steady 5% from 2010 to 2018 to 10% from 2019 to 2022. A mix of policy and environmental factors may have contributed to this change, including scaling of the guided pathways movement throughout Texas, implementation of Texas Senate Bill 25 (designed to facilitate credit transfer and timely graduation), and adjusted transfer and admissions requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic. While 2022 FTIC students are our most recent cohort (to allow for time to transfer), new policies like Texas House Bill 8 have further incentivized vertical transfer from community colleges to public universities in recent years.

Figure 2

The data also underscore that vertical transfer is seldom a “2+2” experience for Dallas College students (i.e., two years at Dallas College and two years at the transfer destination). For most cohorts, more than twice as many students transfer within four years as transfer within two years. Given that nearly three-fourths of Dallas College students enroll part-time, it is unsurprising that it often takes more than two years to transfer. Still, time-to-transfer has implications for a student’s ability to graduate with a bachelor’s degree on time and their ability to gain full-time work experience earlier in their career, which can affect their future employment and earnings. Because of this, Dallas College must understand not only who transfers, but when they do so.

Transfer Rates and Timing

Overall, 5% of Dallas College students in the 2014-2018 FTIC cohorts transferred within two years, 15% did so within four years, and 20% did so within six years. But transfer rates – and the timing of transfer itself – vary considerably across student attributes, including demographics, program of study, and whether the student has completed an associate degree (Figure 3). For example, economically disadvantaged students generally transfer at lower rates than non-disadvantaged students (by 3-4 percentage points). Adults (25 and older) transfer at lower rates than traditional age students (under 25) within two years (4 percentage points), and this gap widens within four to six years (12-14 percentage points). We also find that Black and Hispanic students generally transfer at lower rates than White and Asian students. For example, a larger share of White students transfers within four years (23%) than Black and Hispanic students do within six years (18%). Female and male students transfer at similar rates within two years (5%), but a gap of 2-5 percentage points emerges in favor of female students when measuring four- or six-year rates.

Figure 3

Students’ pre-transfer fields of study also factor into their transfer rates and timing. Fields have varying prerequisites, and specific courses vary in their eligibility for transfer credit, both of which may affect how long students spend in community college. Furthermore, some fields and programs are designed for students to seek employment after graduating with an associate degree or certificate, while others are designed with a bachelor’s pathway in mind. We group fields into broad categories (defined by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board) based on their Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) code and find broad differences in transfer rates. For example, just 1% of students in the industrial arts field transfer within two years (because this field contains mostly applied programs designed for workforce entry), versus 10% of students in the humanities and liberal arts (the field used for a general or core Associate of Arts degree, typically intended for transfer). These rates expand to 6% within six years for students in the industrial arts versus 33% for students in the humanities and liberal arts, a marked difference. Our logistic regression estimates, detailed in an Appendix at the end of the brief, are largely consistent with our descriptive findings, with significant differences in transfer rates found by cohort, demographics, degree attainment, field of study, and credit hours completed.

Post-Transfer Bachelor’s Graduation Rates

Not every student intends to transfer. Because of this, differences in transfer rates by student group are not necessarily a cause for concern in isolation. However, once students do transfer, it is imperative that they successfully graduate with a bachelor’s degree – and do so at similar rates. We calculate regression-adjusted bachelor’s completion rates to show how – conditional upon transfer – the probability of earning a bachelor’s degree in a timely manner (within four, six, or eight years) varies across student groups (Figure 4). These predicted values allow us to compare bachelor’s completion rates while controlling for underlying differences in academic and demographic characteristics of each group. The data expose that there are gaps in post-transfer bachelor’s completion. Overall, we estimate that just 27% of students who transfer within two years graduate with a bachelor’s degree within four years, 55% of students who transfer within four years graduate within six years, and 63% of students who transfer within six years graduate within eight years. Together, these results showcase the challenge of bachelor’s completion: More than a third of students who transfer do not earn a bachelor’s degree within eight years, just under three-in-four who transfer do not complete a “2+2” pathway on time, and whether a student who transfers within four years will graduate within six is a tossup — nearly half do not.

The challenge of bachelor’s completion is pervasive across all groups. Even in the best-case scenarios – for the populations, majors, and institutions with the highest graduation rates – a quarter or more of transfer students do not graduate on time. In general, we find that women graduate with their bachelor’s degree after transferring at higher rates than men, that Asian and White students graduate at higher rates than Hispanic students, that Black students graduate at the lowest rates, and that students who complete an associate degree graduate at higher rates than those who do not. Results by age and socioeconomic status are more nuanced. Economically disadvantaged students and adult learners complete a “2+2” pathway at higher rates than their respective counterparts but show lower on-time completion rates at the six and eight year marks. This result may reflect the urgency of on-time completion for these groups for financial reasons.

Figure 4

Completion rates also vary across institutions, with a 10-15 percentage point gap between universities with the highest and lowest graduation rates for transfer students. Post-transfer major or program of study significantly relates to on-time graduation as well. When focusing on students who transfer within four years and assessing the share who graduate within six years, more than 60% of transfer students who major in social science, business, communications, journalism, law, public policy, and social work graduate on time compared to less than 50% of transfer students who major in physical sciences, architecture, engineering, art, or education. These disparities may stem from the general difficulty of graduating in these majors (for both transfer and non-transfer students), differences in academic preparation requirements, and gaps in whether lower-division courses are accepted depending on the field. When students decide to transfer, these rates matter.  A student who intends to major in journalism can have a (relatively) high degree of confidence that they can graduate on time after transferring. But one who seeks to major in engineering may think twice about whether transfer is the best route.

Economic Outcomes After Transfer

Once students transfer, bachelor’s completion is one of the strongest predictors of earnings and economic mobility, as Figure 1 illustrates. In our regression estimates of log earnings, we assess how much transfer students earn at six, eight, and ten years after their FTIC term: Our model predicts $46,190, $53,666, and $61,003, respectively, across all vertical transfer students who are employed for at least three of four quarters in each earnings measurement year. We find that on-time graduation with a bachelor’s degree is the second most important variable associated with earnings, aside from the age of the student. All else held equal, the students who graduate with a bachelor’s degree on time earn around 33% more than students who transferred but never earned an associate or bachelor’s degree (around $57,000 vs. $43,000 eight years after FTIC enrollment). Whether the student has an associate degree does not significantly enhance their earnings after they transfer; at that point, bachelor’s completion is what matters. Likewise, the student’s pre-transfer major is not significantly related to their earnings, while their post-transfer major is. Recall, however, that while these variables are not significant in predicting earning post-transfer, they do impact the steps that lead to a successful bachelor's completion. For example, associate degree holders are both more likely to transfer within four to six years of their FTIC term and to complete a bachelor's degree once they have transferred, indirectly supporting students’ long-term earnings. We also find that for every additional year that transfer students spend in community college (prior to transfer), they face around a 10% earnings penalty (Appendix Table 5). Together, the results all point to the importance of timely graduation with a bachelor’s degree – without this, transfer alone does not enhance student earnings.

Figure 5

Transfer students’ earnings do vary by the field of study of their bachelor’s degree. For example, in the eighth year after their initial FTIC term, students who transferred within four years and graduated within six years have median earnings that range from $50,000 to $91,000 per year depending on their field (Figure 5). Conditional upon graduation after transfer, the typical student in most fields earns a living wage for a single adult with no children, according to Living Wage Calculator estimates for Dallas County (which place the living wage cutoff—or the amount needed to cover basic needs and support oneself—at $23.06 per hour or $47,965 per year). Students in most majors (all but three categories) are also able to reach an economic mobility threshold of 60th percentile earnings within the state of Texas, or $53,595 per year. In the same timeframe, in contrast, students from the FTIC cohorts who did not transfer or earn an associate degree had median earnings of $44,000 per year, while those who did not transfer but graduated with an associate degree had median earnings of $49,000 per year (Figure 1). Therefore, while there is variation in what students earn after they transfer and graduate depending on their field, most students who reach this stage still experience relatively favorable outcomes.

Conclusion

While there remain opportunities for transfer and bachelor’s completion rates to improve, our analysis shows that the proportion of students who transfer vertically within two, four, and six years of their first year at Dallas College has steadily risen over a decade. Furthermore, students who do transfer and successfully graduate with a bachelor’s degree realize positive economic outcomes, earning wages that exceed the living wage threshold ($47,965) regardless of program of study; and, for many degree programs, exceed the economic mobility threshold ($53,595).

We also find substantial variation in transfer outcomes by student attributes. In many cases, these characteristics lie outside of students’ direct control and should be understood as indicators of where additional institutional support is most needed – particularly for students from historically underserved populations. Encouragingly, Dallas College is already engaged in efforts such as the Dallas Transfer Collaborative that aim to promote more favorable transfer outcomes for all students, no matter their background. In other cases, differences in outcomes are associated with factors such as associate degree completion, transfer destination, or program of study – areas where evidence from this analysis can directly inform student advising and decision-making.

Perhaps most critically, the findings underscore the importance of transfer and completion. Students who transfer but do not go on to graduate with a bachelor’s degree do not realize the same wage gains as those who do. Although student debt was not incorporated into this analysis, these students also incur additional time and financial costs at their transfer institutions, unlike their peers who do not transfer. Taken together, these results highlight the need for advising practices that emphasize completion-oriented transfer pathways and reinforce the value of efforts such as the Transfer Success Fund, which provides financial assistance to students after transferring and encourages degree completion. In addition to transfer success, Dallas College should also continue to review the completion patterns of students in its own growing set of bachelor’s programs, in recognition of the role that a four-year degree can play in shaping economic mobility. The Research Institute looks forward to examining how these and other initiatives shape outcomes as current students begin to access these expanded support services.